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Raptors vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Wednesday, November 4

Wed, Nov 4 · 9:00 PM ETBall Arena

Toronto Raptors

3-1 · away

Projected score

115-113

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · home

56% win TORwin DEN 44%

FavoriteTOR

Projected margin1.9

Projected total228

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Denver Nuggets (2-2) host the Toronto Raptors (3-1) on Wednesday, November 4 at 9:00 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 56% chance to win and projects a 115-113 score (Raptors – Nuggets), about 228 total points. This season, the Nuggets are 1-1 at home and the Raptors are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-2 for the Nuggets and 3-1 for the Raptors (current streaks: Nuggets W1, Raptors W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kawhi Leonard (Raptors), Nate Bittle (Raptors), Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets) and Julian Strawther (Nuggets). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Nuggets 113 – 115 Raptors, a margin of about 1.9 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones (and 2 others). The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nuggets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DEN +2.6 / TOR +5.0 per game

-2.4

Home-court advantageNuggets at home

+2.3

InjuriesDEN: 4 out, 0 questionable · TOR: 2 out, 0 questionable

-1.8

Expected marginfor Nuggets

-1.9

Scenarios

Nuggets win by 10+

17%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Raptors win by 10+

26%

Stat comparison Current season

TORDEN

115.4

Points scored / game

119.2

109.5

Points allowed / game

116.2

44.2 %

Field goal %

45.8 %

30.4 %

3-point %

32.8 %

34.5

3-pointers attempted / game

34.3

79.0 %

Free throw %

79.6 %

45.8

Rebounds / game

44.5

27.3

Assists / game

26.0

14.3

Steals / game

10.0

5.5

Blocks / game

4.8

14.0

Turnovers / game

15.3

Players to watch

Raptors

RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game

Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists

Scottie BarnesF · #47.2rebounds

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

TOR

129-125W

135-92W

112-102L

117-94W

129-99

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

TOR 56% · DEN 44%

ESPN BPI

TOR 35% · DEN 65%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

TOR		DEN
3-1	Record	2-2
115.4	Points scored / game	119.2
109.5	Points allowed / game	116.2
+5.0	Adjusted margin / game	+2.6
W1	Current streak	W1
3-1	Last 10 games	2-2
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
46-36 (+2.8)	Last season	54-28 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Raptors

Kawhi Leonard FOut

Nate Bittle COut

Injury report Nuggets

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Alpha Diallo FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.