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Heat vs Cavaliers prediction NBA · Sunday, November 29

Sun, Nov 29 · 6:00 PM ETRocket Arena · DAZN CLE

Miami Heat

1-4 · away

Projected score

115-121

Cleveland Cavaliers

3-1 · home

33% win MIAwin CLE 67%

FavoriteCLE

Projected margin5.5

Projected total236

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) host the Miami Heat (1-4) on Sunday, November 29 at 6:00 PM ET at Rocket Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Cavaliers a 67% chance to win and projects a 115-121 score (Heat – Cavaliers), about 236 total points. This season, the Cavaliers are 3-0 at home and the Heat are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Cavaliers and 1-4 for the Heat (current streaks: Cavaliers W3, Heat W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Cavaliers are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Cavaliers 121 – 115 Heat, a margin of about 5.5 points in favor of the Cavaliers and a total around 236 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Heat need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Cavaliers' defense allows clearly fewer points (116.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Cavaliers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CLE +3.0 / MIA -0.6 per game

+3.6

Home-court advantageCavaliers at home

+2.3

InjuriesCLE: 0 out, 2 questionable · MIA: 0 out, 1 questionable

-0.3

Expected marginfor Cavaliers

+5.5

Scenarios

Cavaliers win by 10+

36%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Heat win by 10+

11%

Stat comparison Current season

MIACLE

118.6

Points scored / game

119.6

119.2

Points allowed / game

116.0

45.3 %

Field goal %

46.8 %

31.7 %

3-point %

36.7 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

37.5

71.7 %

Free throw %

79.3 %

42.8

Rebounds / game

47.0

27.0

Assists / game

26.3

8.4

Steals / game

8.8

5.4

Blocks / game

7.5

14.2

Turnovers / game

17.3

Players to watch

Heat

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Cavaliers

Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game

James HardenG · #16.8assists

Evan MobleyC · #410.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIA

131-106L

128-111L

115-110L

113-109W

129-117

CLE

132-116L

114-106W

125-121W

127-125 OTW WSH

121-111

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIA 33% · CLE 67%

ESPN BPI

MIA 33% · CLE 67%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIA		CLE
1-4	Record	3-1
118.6	Points scored / game	119.6
119.2	Points allowed / game	116.0
-0.6	Adjusted margin / game	+3.0
W1	Current streak	W3
1-4	Last 10 games	3-1
1-1 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
43-39 (+2.3)	Last season	52-30 (+4.1)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Injury report Cavaliers

Meleek Thomas GDay-To-Day

Jaylon Tyson GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.