Cavaliers vs Heat prediction NBA · Friday, November 13
At a glance
The Miami Heat (1-4) host the Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) on Friday, November 13 at 8:00 PM ET at Kaseya Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Cavaliers a 52% chance to win and projects a 119-118 score (Cavaliers – Heat), about 236 total points. This season, the Heat are 0-3 at home and the Cavaliers are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Heat and 3-1 for the Cavaliers (current streaks: Heat W1, Cavaliers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Meleek Thomas (Cavaliers). Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Heat 118 – 119 Cavaliers, a margin of about 0.7 points in favor of the Cavaliers and a total around 236 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Cavaliers will be without Meleek Thomas. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Heat need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Cavaliers' defense allows clearly fewer points (116.0 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
CLEMIA
Players to watch
Cavaliers
Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game
James HardenG · #16.8assists
Evan MobleyC · #410.0reboundsHeat
Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game
Davion MitchellG · #27.6assistsGiannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2reboundsRecent form
CLE
132-116L
114-106W
125-121W
127-125 OTW
121-111MIA131-106L
128-111L
115-110L
113-109W
129-117Head-to-head
3 meetings scheduled this season.
CLE
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| CLE | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| 119.6 | Points scored / game | 118.6 |
| 116.0 | Points allowed / game | 119.2 |
| +3.0 | Adjusted margin / game | -0.6 |
| W3 | Current streak | W1 |
| 3-1 | Last 10 games | 1-4 |
| 0-1 road | Home / road record | 0-3 home |
| 52-30 (+4.1) | Last season | 43-39 (+2.3) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Cavaliers
Injury report Heat
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.