Cavaliers vs Bulls prediction NBA · Monday, November 23
At a glance
The Chicago Bulls (1-4) host the Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) on Monday, November 23 at 8:00 PM ET at United Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Cavaliers a 81% chance to win and projects a 123-112 score (Cavaliers – Bulls), about 235 total points. This season, the Bulls are 0-2 at home and the Cavaliers are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bulls and 3-1 for the Cavaliers (current streaks: Bulls L3, Cavaliers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 21% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Bulls played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Meleek Thomas (Cavaliers), Patrick Williams (Bulls) and Nic Claxton (Bulls). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Cavaliers dominate this matchup. The model projects Bulls 112 – 123 Cavaliers, a margin of about 11.1 points in favor of the Cavaliers and a total around 235 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Bulls played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton. The Cavaliers will be without Meleek Thomas. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-7.2 vs +3.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Bulls need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Cavaliers' offense (119.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Cavaliers' defense allows clearly fewer points (116.0 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
CLECHI
Players to watch
Cavaliers
Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game
James HardenG · #16.8assists
Evan MobleyC · #410.0reboundsBulls
Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game
Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists
Jalen SmithF · #258.2reboundsRecent form
CLE
132-116L
114-106W
125-121W
127-125 OTW
121-111CHI
135-92W
132-125L124-120L
134-99L
133-127Head-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
CHI
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| CLE | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| 119.6 | Points scored / game | 115.6 |
| 116.0 | Points allowed / game | 124.1 |
| +3.0 | Adjusted margin / game | -7.2 |
| W3 | Current streak | L3 |
| 3-1 | Last 10 games | 1-4 |
| 0-1 road | Home / road record | 0-2 home |
| 52-30 (+4.1) | Last season | 31-51 (-5.2) |
| No | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Cavaliers
Injury report Bulls
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.