Bulls vs Cavaliers prediction NBA · Monday, November 16
At a glance
The Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) host the Chicago Bulls (1-4) on Monday, November 16 at 7:00 PM ET at Rocket Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Cavaliers a 87% chance to win and projects a 111-125 score (Bulls – Cavaliers), about 236 total points. This season, the Cavaliers are 3-0 at home and the Bulls are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Cavaliers and 1-4 for the Bulls (current streaks: Cavaliers W3, Bulls L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 17% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Patrick Williams (Bulls), Nic Claxton (Bulls) and Meleek Thomas (Cavaliers). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Cavaliers dominate this matchup. The model projects Cavaliers 125 – 111 Bulls, a margin of about 14.1 points in favor of the Cavaliers and a total around 236 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Cavaliers will be without Meleek Thomas. The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+3.0 vs -7.2 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Bulls need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Cavaliers' offense (119.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Cavaliers' defense allows clearly fewer points (116.0 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
CHICLE
Players to watch
Bulls
Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game
Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists
Jalen SmithF · #258.2reboundsCavaliers
Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game
James HardenG · #16.8assists
Evan MobleyC · #410.0reboundsRecent form
CHI
135-92W
132-125L
124-120L
134-99L
133-127CLE
132-116L
114-106W
125-121W
127-125 OTW121-111Head-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
CHI
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| CHI | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-1 |
| 115.6 | Points scored / game | 119.6 |
| 124.1 | Points allowed / game | 116.0 |
| -7.2 | Adjusted margin / game | +3.0 |
| L3 | Current streak | W3 |
| 1-4 | Last 10 games | 3-1 |
| 1-2 road | Home / road record | 3-0 home |
| 31-51 (-5.2) | Last season | 52-30 (+4.1) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Bulls
Injury report Cavaliers
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.