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Magic vs Wizards prediction NBA · Sunday, November 22

Sun, Nov 22 · 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · MNMT

Orlando Magic

1-3 · away

Projected score

116-114

Washington Wizards

2-3 · home

56% win ORLwin WSH 44%

FavoriteORL

Projected margin1.7

Projected total230

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Washington Wizards (2-3) host the Orlando Magic (1-3) on Sunday, November 22 at 7:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Magic a 56% chance to win and projects a 116-114 score (Magic – Wizards), about 230 total points. This season, the Wizards are 1-1 at home and the Magic are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Wizards and 1-3 for the Magic (current streaks: Wizards L2, Magic L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jonathan Isaac (Magic), Jalen Suggs (Magic), Paolo Banchero (Magic), Noah Penda (Magic), Izaiyah Nelson (Magic) and Justin Champagnie (Wizards)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Wizards 114 – 116 Magic, a margin of about 1.7 points in favor of the Magic and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). The Magic will be without Jonathan Isaac or Jalen Suggs (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-7.7 vs -2.3 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Magic's defense allows clearly fewer points (116.2 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Wizards

Team strength (adjusted point differential)WSH -7.7 / ORL -2.3 per game

-5.5

Home-court advantageWizards at home

+2.3

InjuriesWSH: 3 out, 1 questionable · ORL: 5 out, 0 questionable

+1.4

Expected marginfor Wizards

-1.7

Scenarios

Wizards win by 10+

17%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Magic win by 10+

25%

Stat comparison Current season

ORLWSH

113.6

Points scored / game

113.1

116.2

Points allowed / game

122.2

44.2 %

Field goal %

48.0 %

31.4 %

3-point %

28.5 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

31.6

75.0 %

Free throw %

83.1 %

41.3

Rebounds / game

40.0

26.0

Assists / game

25.8

7.8

Steals / game

7.4

4.5

Blocks / game

5.6

17.8

Turnovers / game

13.6

Players to watch

Magic

Franz WagnerF · #2219.5pts / game

Franz WagnerF · #226.0assists

Wendell Carter Jr.C · #349.0rebounds

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

ORL

136-115L

132-125L

115-93W

111-102L

129-99

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

ORL 56% · WSH 44%

ESPN BPI

ORL 54% · WSH 46%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ORL		WSH
1-3	Record	2-3
113.6	Points scored / game	113.1
116.2	Points allowed / game	122.2
-2.3	Adjusted margin / game	-7.7
L1	Current streak	L2
1-3	Last 10 games	2-3
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
45-37 (+0.6)	Last season	17-65 (-12.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Magic

Jonathan Isaac FOut

Jalen Suggs GOut

Paolo Banchero FOut

Noah Penda FOut

Izaiyah Nelson FOut

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.