Wizards vs Magic prediction NBA · Monday, November 2
At a glance
The Orlando Magic (1-3) host the Washington Wizards (2-3) on Monday, November 2 at 7:30 PM ET at Kia Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Magic a 65% chance to win and projects a 112-116 score (Wizards – Magic), about 228 total points. This season, the Magic are 0-2 at home and the Wizards are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-3 for the Magic and 2-3 for the Wizards (current streaks: Magic L1, Wizards L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Magic played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards), Jamir Watkins (Wizards), Jonathan Isaac (Magic), Jalen Suggs (Magic) and Paolo Banchero (Magic)…. Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
Slight edge to the Magic, but the Wizards have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Magic 116 – 112 Wizards, a margin of about 4.7 points in favor of the Magic and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Magic played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Magic will be without Jonathan Isaac or Jalen Suggs (and 3 others). The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-2.3 vs -7.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Magic's defense allows clearly fewer points (116.2 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
WSHORL
Players to watch
Wizards
Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game
Trae YoungG · #310.4assistsAnthony DavisF · #238.4reboundsMagic
Franz WagnerF · #2219.5pts / gameFranz WagnerF · #226.0assists
Wendell Carter Jr.C · #349.0reboundsRecent form
WSH
128-116L
112-102W
124-120L
110-103L
121-111ORL
136-115L
132-125L
115-93W
111-102L129-99Head-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
WSH
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| WSH | ORL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 1-3 |
| 113.1 | Points scored / game | 113.6 |
| 122.2 | Points allowed / game | 116.2 |
| -7.7 | Adjusted margin / game | -2.3 |
| L2 | Current streak | L1 |
| 2-3 | Last 10 games | 1-3 |
| 1-2 road | Home / road record | 0-2 home |
| 17-65 (-12.0) | Last season | 45-37 (+0.6) |
| No | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Wizards
Injury report Magic
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.