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Knicks vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Thursday, November 19

Thu, Nov 19 · 8:00 PM ETTarget Center · NBA TV, DAZN MIN

New York Knicks

2-3 · away

Projected score

112-115

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 · home

41% win NYwin MIN 59%

FavoriteMIN

Projected margin2.7

Projected total227

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) host the New York Knicks (2-3) on Thursday, November 19 at 8:00 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 59% chance to win and projects a 112-115 score (Knicks – Timberwolves), about 227 total points. This season, the Timberwolves are 1-1 at home and the Knicks are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Timberwolves and 2-3 for the Knicks (current streaks: Timberwolves L2, Knicks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jose Alvarado (Knicks), Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) and Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Timberwolves, but the Knicks have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Timberwolves 115 – 112 Knicks, a margin of about 2.7 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo. The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado.

The Knicks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Timberwolves' offense (118.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Timberwolves

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIN +5.2 / NY +3.8 per game

+1.3

Home-court advantageTimberwolves at home

+2.3

InjuriesMIN: 2 out, 0 questionable · NY: 1 out, 0 questionable

-0.9

Expected marginfor Timberwolves

+2.7

Scenarios

Timberwolves win by 10+

28%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Knicks win by 10+

15%

Stat comparison Current season

NYMIN

114.5

Points scored / game

118.7

110.0

Points allowed / game

112.6

42.2 %

Field goal %

47.3 %

35.9 %

3-point %

38.4 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

40.6

75.8 %

Free throw %

62.7 %

48.2

Rebounds / game

51.6

26.8

Assists / game

27.0

7.2

Steals / game

9.2

4.4

Blocks / game

4.4

14.8

Turnovers / game

16.2

Players to watch

Knicks

Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game

Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists

Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8rebounds

Timberwolves

Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game

LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists

Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

106-100L

107-103L

111-102W

111-97W

133-127

MIN

131-106W

115-93W

117-94L

127-125 OTL

119-114

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

NY 41% · MIN 59%

ESPN BPI

NY 48% · MIN 52%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

NY		MIN
2-3	Record	3-2
114.5	Points scored / game	118.7
110.0	Points allowed / game	112.6
+3.8	Adjusted margin / game	+5.2
W2	Current streak	L2
2-3	Last 10 games	3-2
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
53-29 (+6.3)	Last season	49-33 (+3.4)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Knicks

Jose Alvarado GOut

Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut

Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.