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Timberwolves vs Knicks prediction NBA · Monday, January 18

Mon, Jan 18 · 5:00 PM ETMadison Square Garden · NBC
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves
3-2 · away
Projected score
112-114
New York Knicks
New York Knicks
2-3 · home
44% win MINwin NY 56%
FavoriteNY
Projected margin1.9
Projected total227
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The New York Knicks (2-3) host the Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) on Monday, January 18 at 5:00 PM ET at Madison Square Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Knicks a 56% chance to win and projects a 112-114 score (Timberwolves – Knicks), about 227 total points. This season, the Knicks are 1-2 at home and the Timberwolves are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Knicks and 3-2 for the Timberwolves (current streaks: Knicks W2, Timberwolves L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves), Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves) and Jose Alvarado (Knicks). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Knicks 114 – 112 Timberwolves, a margin of about 1.9 points in favor of the Knicks and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo.

  • The Timberwolves need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Timberwolves' offense (118.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Knicks
Team strength (adjusted point differential)NY +3.8 / MIN +5.2 per game
-1.3
Home-court advantageKnicks at home
+2.3
InjuriesNY: 1 out, 0 questionable · MIN: 2 out, 0 questionable
+0.9
Expected marginfor Knicks
+1.9

Scenarios

Knicks win by 10+
26%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Timberwolves win by 10+
17%

Stat comparison Current season

MINNY
118.7
Points scored / game
114.5
112.6
Points allowed / game
110.0
47.3 %
Field goal %
42.2 %
38.4 %
3-point %
35.9 %
40.6
3-pointers attempted / game
39.0
62.7 %
Free throw %
75.8 %
51.6
Rebounds / game
48.2
27.0
Assists / game
26.8
9.2
Steals / game
7.2
4.4
Blocks / game
4.4
16.2
Turnovers / game
14.8

Players to watch

Timberwolves
Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game
LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists
Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds
Knicks
Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game
Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists
Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
MIN
WMIA131-106WORL115-93WTOR117-94LCLE127-125 OTLGS119-114
NY
LPHI106-100LBOS107-103LORL111-102WDET111-97WCHI133-127

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 19NYupcomingMINJan 18MINthis gameNY

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
MIN 44% · NY 56%
ESPN BPI
MIN 48% · NY 52%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MINNY
3-2Record2-3
118.7Points scored / game114.5
112.6Points allowed / game110.0
+5.2Adjusted margin / game+3.8
L2Current streakW2
3-2Last 10 games2-3
2-1 roadHome / road record1-2 home
49-33 (+3.4)Last season53-29 (+6.3)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Minnesota Timberwolves Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut
Donte DiVincenzo GOut

New York Knicks Injury report Knicks

Jose Alvarado GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.