Warriors vs Pelicans prediction NBA · Monday, November 16
At a glance
The New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) host the Golden State Warriors (2-3) on Monday, November 16 at 8:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Warriors a 52% chance to win and projects a 117-116 score (Warriors – Pelicans), about 232 total points. This season, the Pelicans are 0-2 at home and the Warriors are 2-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Pelicans and 2-3 for the Warriors (current streaks: Pelicans L4, Warriors W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors), Jimmy Butler III (Warriors), Dejounte Murray (Pelicans), Jordan Poole (Pelicans) and Yves Missi (Pelicans). Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Pelicans 116 – 117 Warriors, a margin of about 0.7 points in favor of the Warriors and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pelicans will be without Dejounte Murray or Jordan Poole (and 1 other). The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Warriors' defense allows clearly fewer points (116.4 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
GSNO
Players to watch
Warriors
Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game
Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists
Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2reboundsPelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2reboundsRecent form
GS
127-105L
111-108L
131-122W
134-114W
119-114NO
107-106L
123-120L
120-119L141-135 OTL104-91
NO
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| GS | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 0-4 |
| 115.5 | Points scored / game | 115.7 |
| 116.4 | Points allowed / game | 120.5 |
| -0.8 | Adjusted margin / game | -4.1 |
| W2 | Current streak | L4 |
| 2-3 | Last 10 games | 0-4 |
| 2-2 road | Home / road record | 0-2 home |
| 37-45 (-0.6) | Last season | 26-56 (-4.5) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Warriors
Injury report Pelicans
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.