Pelicans vs Warriors prediction NBA · Monday, November 9
At a glance
The Golden State Warriors (2-3) host the New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) on Monday, November 9 at 10:00 PM ET at Chase Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Warriors a 71% chance to win and projects a 112-119 score (Pelicans – Warriors), about 230 total points. This season, the Warriors are 0-1 at home and the Pelicans are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Warriors and 0-4 for the Pelicans (current streaks: Warriors W2, Pelicans L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Pelicans played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Dejounte Murray (Pelicans), Jordan Poole (Pelicans), Yves Missi (Pelicans), Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors) and Jimmy Butler III (Warriors). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
Slight edge to the Warriors, but the Pelicans have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Warriors 119 – 112 Pelicans, a margin of about 6.9 points in favor of the Warriors and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pelicans played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). The Pelicans will be without Dejounte Murray or Jordan Poole (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Warriors' defense allows clearly fewer points (116.4 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
NOGS
Players to watch
Pelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2reboundsWarriors
Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game
Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists
Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2reboundsRecent form
NO
107-106L
123-120L
120-119L
141-135 OTL104-91GS
127-105L
111-108L
131-122W134-114W
119-114
NO
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| NO | GS | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 2-3 |
| 115.7 | Points scored / game | 115.5 |
| 120.5 | Points allowed / game | 116.4 |
| -4.1 | Adjusted margin / game | -0.8 |
| L4 | Current streak | W2 |
| 0-4 | Last 10 games | 2-3 |
| 0-2 road | Home / road record | 0-1 home |
| 26-56 (-4.5) | Last season | 37-45 (-0.6) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Pelicans
Injury report Warriors
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.