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Pacers vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Monday, November 9

Mon, Nov 9 · 8:00 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center · KFAA-TV, MavsTV, DAZN IND

Indiana Pacers

2-3 · away

Projected score

112-115

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · home

40% win INDwin DAL 60%

FavoriteDAL

Projected margin3.2

Projected total227

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Dallas Mavericks (3-2) host the Indiana Pacers (2-3) on Monday, November 9 at 8:00 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Mavericks a 60% chance to win and projects a 112-115 score (Pacers – Mavericks), about 227 total points. This season, the Mavericks are 1-1 at home and the Pacers are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Mavericks and 2-3 for the Pacers (current streaks: Mavericks W2, Pacers L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Mavericks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers), Johnny Furphy (Pacers), Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks) and Santi Aldama (Mavericks)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Mavericks are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Mavericks 115 – 112 Pacers, a margin of about 3.2 points in favor of the Mavericks and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Mavericks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 1 other). The Pacers will be without T.J. McConnell or Ben Sheppard (and 2 others).

The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Mavericks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DAL -2.8 / IND -4.7 per game

+1.9

Home-court advantageMavericks at home

+2.3

Back-to-backMavericks played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesDAL: 3 out, 2 questionable · IND: 4 out, 1 questionable

+0.5

Expected marginfor Mavericks

+3.2

Scenarios

Mavericks win by 10+

29%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Pacers win by 10+

15%

Stat comparison Current season

INDDAL

113.2

Points scored / game

114.1

118.8

Points allowed / game

117.4

47.1 %

Field goal %

49.0 %

31.2 %

3-point %

34.6 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

72.7 %

Free throw %

76.7 %

44.0

Rebounds / game

44.2

29.4

Assists / game

27.6

6.4

Steals / game

9.0

4.8

Blocks / game

7.4

14.8

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game

Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists

Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

IND

123-120L

121-105W

136-109L

110-102L

114-109

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

Head-to-head

DAL lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

IND 40% · DAL 60%

ESPN BPI

IND 34% · DAL 66%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

IND		DAL
2-3	Record	3-2
113.2	Points scored / game	114.1
118.8	Points allowed / game	117.4
-4.7	Adjusted margin / game	-2.8
L2	Current streak	W2
2-3	Last 10 games	3-2
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
19-63 (-8.0)	Last season	26-56 (-5.5)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Pacers

T.J. McConnell GOut

Ben Sheppard GOut

Tyrese Haliburton GOut

Johnny Furphy GOut

Ivica Zubac CDay-To-Day

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Sergio de Larrea FDay-To-Day

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.