Match analysisToday's gamesNBA standingsEuroLeagueTrack record
← Back

Mavericks vs Pacers prediction NBA · Friday, October 23

FinalGainbridge Fieldhouse · NBA League Pass, KFAA-TV, MavsTV
Dallas Mavericks
Dallas Mavericks
1-1 · away
Final score
121-105
Projected: 116-118
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers
1-1 · home
44% win DALwin IND 56%
FavoriteIND
Projected margin1.7
Projected total234
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Indiana Pacers (1-0) host the Dallas Mavericks (0-1) on Friday, October 23 at 7:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in NBA action. Final score: Mavericks 121 – Pacers 105. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Pacers a 56% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Mavericks are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-0 for the Pacers and 0-1 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Pacers W1, Mavericks L1).

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Pacers 118 – 116 Mavericks, a margin of about 1.7 points in favor of the Pacers and a total around 234 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

  • The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pacers
Team strength (adjusted point differential)IND -6.1 / DAL -5.5 per game
-0.6
Home-court advantagePacers at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Pacers
+1.7

Scenarios

Pacers win by 10+
25%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Mavericks win by 10+
17%

Stat comparison Current season

DALIND
113.8
Points scored / game
113.2
120.3
Points allowed / game
120.4
49.0 %
Field goal %
47.1 %
34.6 %
3-point %
31.2 %
38.2
3-pointers attempted / game
37.8
76.7 %
Free throw %
72.7 %
44.2
Rebounds / game
44.0
27.6
Assists / game
29.4
9.0
Steals / game
6.4
7.4
Blocks / game
4.8
15.6
Turnovers / game
14.8

Top performers

Mavericks
Kyrie IrvingG · #1124pts / game
Naji MarshallF · #36assists
P.J. WashingtonF · #2513rebounds
Pacers
Pascal SiakamF · #4323pts / game
Tyrese HaliburtonG · #07assists
Ivica ZubacC · #4011rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
DAL
No games played yet.
IND
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

DAL lead 1-0 this season.

Team comparison

DALIND
0-1Record1-0
113.8Points scored / game113.2
120.3Points allowed / game120.4
-5.5Adjusted margin / game-6.1
L1Current streakW1
0-1Last 10 games1-0
0-1 roadHome / road record0-0 home
26-56 (-5.5)Last season19-63 (-8.0)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Dallas Mavericks Injury report Mavericks

No injuries reported.

Indiana Pacers Injury report Pacers

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.