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Celtics vs Bucks prediction NBA · Sunday, November 8

Sun, Nov 8 · 8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · MyMi, Bucks App

Boston Celtics

3-1 · away

Projected score

118-109

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · home

78% win BOSwin MIL 22%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin9.8

Projected total227

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) host the Boston Celtics (3-1) on Sunday, November 8 at 8:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 78% chance to win and projects a 118-109 score (Celtics – Bucks), about 227 total points. This season, the Bucks are 1-2 at home and the Celtics are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bucks and 3-1 for the Celtics (current streaks: Bucks L1, Celtics W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 23% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Devin Carter (Celtics). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Celtics dominate this matchup. The model projects Bucks 109 – 118 Celtics, a margin of about 9.8 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-6.4 vs +6.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Celtics' offense (116.1 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bucks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIL -6.4 / BOS +6.6 per game

-13.0

Home-court advantageBucks at home

+2.3

InjuriesMIL: 0 out, 0 questionable · BOS: 1 out, 0 questionable

+0.9

Expected marginfor Bucks

-9.8

Scenarios

Bucks win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

23%

Celtics win by 10+

49%

Stat comparison Current season

BOSMIL

116.1

Points scored / game

111.4

108.3

Points allowed / game

119.0

46.5 %

Field goal %

44.9 %

38.6 %

3-point %

34.0 %

41.5

3-pointers attempted / game

41.2

76.0 %

Free throw %

71.6 %

44.3

Rebounds / game

49.8

27.8

Assists / game

24.6

9.0

Steals / game

5.8

3.8

Blocks / game

4.0

15.5

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

BOS 78% · MIL 22%

ESPN BPI

BOS 80% · MIL 20%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

BOS		MIL
3-1	Record	1-4
116.1	Points scored / game	111.4
108.3	Points allowed / game	119.0
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	-6.4
W3	Current streak	L1
3-1	Last 10 games	1-4
0-1 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
56-26 (+7.7)	Last season	32-50 (-6.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.