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Bucks vs Celtics prediction NBA · Wednesday, November 4

Wed, Nov 4 · 7:30 PM ETTD Garden · MyMi, Bucks App

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · away

Projected score

106-121

Boston Celtics

3-1 · home

12% win MILwin BOS 88%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin14.4

Projected total227

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Boston Celtics (3-1) host the Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) on Wednesday, November 4 at 7:30 PM ET at TD Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 88% chance to win and projects a 106-121 score (Bucks – Celtics), about 227 total points. This season, the Celtics are 3-0 at home and the Bucks are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Celtics and 1-4 for the Bucks (current streaks: Celtics W3, Bucks L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 17% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Devin Carter (Celtics). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Celtics start with a clear edge. The model projects Celtics 121 – 106 Bucks, a margin of about 14.4 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+6.6 vs -6.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Celtics' offense (116.1 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Celtics

Team strength (adjusted point differential)BOS +6.6 / MIL -6.4 per game

+13.0

Home-court advantageCeltics at home

+2.3

InjuriesBOS: 1 out, 0 questionable · MIL: 0 out, 0 questionable

-0.9

Expected marginfor Celtics

+14.4

Scenarios

Celtics win by 10+

64%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

17%

Bucks win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

MILBOS

111.4

Points scored / game

116.1

119.0

Points allowed / game

108.3

44.9 %

Field goal %

46.5 %

34.0 %

3-point %

38.6 %

41.2

3-pointers attempted / game

41.5

71.6 %

Free throw %

76.0 %

49.8

Rebounds / game

44.3

24.6

Assists / game

27.8

5.8

Steals / game

9.0

4.0

Blocks / game

3.8

16.8

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIL 12% · BOS 88%

ESPN BPI

MIL 14% · BOS 86%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIL		BOS
1-4	Record	3-1
111.4	Points scored / game	116.1
119.0	Points allowed / game	108.3
-6.4	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
L1	Current streak	W3
1-4	Last 10 games	3-1
0-2 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
32-50 (-6.2)	Last season	56-26 (+7.7)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.