Cavaliers vs Thunder prediction NBA · Wednesday, November 4
At a glance
The Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) host the Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) on Wednesday, November 4 at 8:00 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 60% chance to win and projects a 112-115 score (Cavaliers – Thunder), about 227 total points. This season, the Thunder are 3-0 at home and the Cavaliers are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Thunder and 3-1 for the Cavaliers (current streaks: Thunder L1, Cavaliers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder), Nikola Topic (Thunder) and Cason Wallace (Thunder). Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
Slight edge to the Thunder, but the Cavaliers have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Thunder 115 – 112 Cavaliers, a margin of about 3.1 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+7.6 vs +3.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Cavaliers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Cavaliers' offense (119.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
CLEOKC
Players to watch
Cavaliers
Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game
James HardenG · #16.8assists
Evan MobleyC · #410.0reboundsThunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6reboundsRecent form
CLE
132-116L
114-106W
125-121W
127-125 OTW
121-111OKC
116-104W
96-84W
108-101W
125-114L
120-96
OKC
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| CLE | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 119.6 | Points scored / game | 115.8 |
| 116.0 | Points allowed / game | 106.9 |
| +3.0 | Adjusted margin / game | +7.6 |
| W3 | Current streak | L1 |
| 3-1 | Last 10 games | 4-1 |
| 0-1 road | Home / road record | 3-0 home |
| 52-30 (+4.1) | Last season | 64-18 (+11.1) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Cavaliers
Injury report Thunder
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.