Thunder vs Cavaliers prediction NBA · Monday, November 2
At a glance
The Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) on Monday, November 2 at 7:00 PM ET at Rocket Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Cavaliers a 55% chance to win and projects a 113-114 score (Thunder – Cavaliers), about 227 total points. This season, the Cavaliers are 3-0 at home and the Thunder are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Cavaliers and 4-1 for the Thunder (current streaks: Cavaliers W3, Thunder L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder), Nikola Topic (Thunder) and Cason Wallace (Thunder). Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Cavaliers 114 – 113 Thunder, a margin of about 1.5 points in favor of the Cavaliers and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+3.0 vs +7.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Thunder need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Cavaliers' offense (119.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
OKCCLE
Players to watch
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6reboundsCavaliers
Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game
James HardenG · #16.8assists
Evan MobleyC · #410.0reboundsRecent form
OKC
116-104W
96-84W
108-101W
125-114L
120-96CLE
132-116L
114-106W
125-121W
127-125 OTW
121-111
OKC
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.
Team comparison
| OKC | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-1 |
| 115.8 | Points scored / game | 119.6 |
| 106.9 | Points allowed / game | 116.0 |
| +7.6 | Adjusted margin / game | +3.0 |
| L1 | Current streak | W3 |
| 4-1 | Last 10 games | 3-1 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 3-0 home |
| 64-18 (+11.1) | Last season | 52-30 (+4.1) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Thunder
Injury report Cavaliers
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.