Hawks vs Pelicans prediction NBA · Saturday, October 31
At a glance
The New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) host the Atlanta Hawks (2-3) on Saturday, October 31 at 7:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 62% chance to win and projects a 119-115 score (Hawks – Pelicans), about 234 total points. This season, the Pelicans are 0-2 at home and the Hawks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Pelicans and 2-3 for the Hawks (current streaks: Pelicans L4, Hawks L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks), Henri Veesaar (Hawks) and Yves Missi (Pelicans). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Hawks are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Pelicans 115 – 119 Hawks, a margin of about 3.9 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 234 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Pelicans will be without Yves Missi. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-4.1 vs +2.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Hawks' defense allows clearly fewer points (115.8 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
ATLNO
Players to watch
Hawks
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game
Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assistsJalen JohnsonF · #19.6reboundsPelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2reboundsRecent form
ATL
132-125W
128-81L
121-114L120-110L
129-117NO
107-106L
123-120L
120-119L
141-135 OTL104-91
ATL
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| ATL | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 0-4 |
| 119.0 | Points scored / game | 115.7 |
| 115.8 | Points allowed / game | 120.5 |
| +2.7 | Adjusted margin / game | -4.1 |
| L3 | Current streak | L4 |
| 2-3 | Last 10 games | 0-4 |
| 2-1 road | Home / road record | 0-2 home |
| 46-36 (+2.4) | Last season | 26-56 (-4.5) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Hawks
Injury report Pelicans
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.