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Celtics vs Hornets prediction NBA · Friday, November 6

Fri, Nov 6 · 7:00 PM ETSpectrum Center

Boston Celtics

3-1 · away

Projected score

114-107

Charlotte Hornets

3-2 · home

69% win BOSwin CHA 31%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin6.3

Projected total221

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Charlotte Hornets (3-2) host the Boston Celtics (3-1) on Friday, November 6 at 7:00 PM ET at Spectrum Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 69% chance to win and projects a 114-107 score (Celtics – Hornets), about 221 total points. This season, the Hornets are 2-1 at home and the Celtics are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Hornets and 3-1 for the Celtics (current streaks: Hornets L1, Celtics W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Devin Carter (Celtics), Kon Knueppel (Hornets), Coby White (Hornets), Grant Williams (Hornets) and Kylan Boswell (Hornets). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Celtics are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Hornets 107 – 114 Celtics, a margin of about 6.3 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 221 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others). The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+1.1 vs +6.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Hornets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Celtics' offense (116.1 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hornets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHA +1.1 / BOS +6.6 per game

-5.5

Home-court advantageHornets at home

+2.3

InjuriesCHA: 4 out, 1 questionable · BOS: 1 out, 0 questionable

-3.1

Expected marginfor Hornets

-6.3

Scenarios

Hornets win by 10+

10%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Celtics win by 10+

38%

Stat comparison Current season

BOSCHA

116.1

Points scored / game

111.6

108.3

Points allowed / game

110.3

46.5 %

Field goal %

41.7 %

38.6 %

3-point %

30.6 %

41.5

3-pointers attempted / game

43.2

76.0 %

Free throw %

85.2 %

44.3

Rebounds / game

47.4

27.8

Assists / game

20.6

9.0

Steals / game

6.8

3.8

Blocks / game

5.2

15.5

Turnovers / game

19.0

Players to watch

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Hornets

Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game

Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists

Moussa DiabateF · #149.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

CHA

110-103L

128-81W

115-110W

110-103L

97-89

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

BOS 69% · CHA 31%

ESPN BPI

BOS 67% · CHA 33%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

BOS		CHA
3-1	Record	3-2
116.1	Points scored / game	111.6
108.3	Points allowed / game	110.3
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	+1.1
W3	Current streak	L1
3-1	Last 10 games	3-2
0-1 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
56-26 (+7.7)	Last season	44-38 (+4.8)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Injury report Hornets

Kon Knueppel GOut

Coby White GOut

Grant Williams FOut

Kylan Boswell GOut

Dennis Schroder GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.