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76ers vs Lakers prediction NBA · Friday, December 25

Fri, Dec 25 · 5:00 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · ABC, ESPN

Philadelphia 76ers

4-1 · away

Projected score

111-117

Los Angeles Lakers

4-1 · home

29% win PHIwin LAL 71%

FavoriteLAL

Projected margin6.8

Projected total228

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) host the Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) on Friday, December 25 at 5:00 PM ET at crypto.com Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Lakers a 71% chance to win and projects a 111-117 score (76ers – Lakers), about 228 total points. This season, the Lakers are 2-1 at home and the 76ers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Lakers and 4-1 for the 76ers (current streaks: Lakers W1, 76ers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jabari Walker (76ers), Tacko Fall (76ers), Dominick Barlow (76ers), Ariel Hukporti (76ers), Cameron Carr (Lakers) and Adou Thiero (Lakers). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Lakers, but the 76ers have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Lakers 117 – 111 76ers, a margin of about 6.8 points in favor of the Lakers and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero. The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others).

The 76ers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Lakers' offense (118.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Lakers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)LAL +3.5 / PHI +0.7 per game

+2.7

Home-court advantageLakers at home

+2.3

InjuriesLAL: 2 out, 1 questionable · PHI: 4 out, 1 questionable

+1.8

Expected marginfor Lakers

+6.8

Scenarios

Lakers win by 10+

40%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

27%

76ers win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

PHILAL

114.4

Points scored / game

118.4

113.5

Points allowed / game

114.3

42.8 %

Field goal %

52.9 %

32.6 %

3-point %

39.2 %

35.0

3-pointers attempted / game

36.2

77.5 %

Free throw %

79.1 %

42.2

Rebounds / game

38.0

24.6

Assists / game

24.0

9.8

Steals / game

10.8

5.6

Blocks / game

5.8

12.6

Turnovers / game

16.6

Players to watch

76ers

Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game

LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists

Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0rebounds

Lakers

Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game

Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists

Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHI

106-100W

114-106W

127-116L

106-93W

114-109

LAL

127-105W

125-117W

132-123L

136-129W

103-87

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHI 29% · LAL 71%

ESPN BPI

PHI 46% · LAL 54%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

PHI		LAL
4-1	Record	4-1
114.4	Points scored / game	118.4
113.5	Points allowed / game	114.3
+0.7	Adjusted margin / game	+3.5
W1	Current streak	W1
4-1	Last 10 games	4-1
2-0 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
45-37 (-0.2)	Last season	53-29 (+1.8)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report 76ers

Jabari Walker FOut

Tacko Fall COut

Dominick Barlow FOut

Ariel Hukporti COut

Jaylen Brown GDay-To-Day

Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut

Adou Thiero FOut

Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.