Match analysisToday's gamesNBA standingsEuroLeagueTrack record
← Back

Grizzlies vs Bucks prediction NBA · Sunday, April 5

FinalFiserv Forum · FanDuel SN WI, FanDuel SN SE, NBA League Pass
47% win MEMwin MIL 53%
FavoriteMIL
Projected margin0.9
Projected total231
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Milwaukee Bucks (30-47) host the Memphis Grizzlies (25-52) on Sunday, April 5 at 3:30 PM ET at Fiserv Forum in NBA action. Final score: Grizzlies 115 – Bucks 131. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Bucks a 53% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Bucks are 17-22 at home and the Grizzlies are 11-26 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 2-8 for the Bucks and 2-8 for the Grizzlies (current streaks: Bucks L2, Grizzlies L3).

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Bucks 116 – 115 Grizzlies, a margin of about 0.9 points in favor of the Bucks and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.

  • The Grizzlies need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Grizzlies' offense (115.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bucks
Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIL -4.4 / MEM -2.9 per game
-1.4
Home-court advantageBucks at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Bucks
+0.9

Scenarios

Bucks win by 10+
23%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Grizzlies win by 10+
19%

Stat comparison Current season

MEMMIL
115.7
Points scored / game
111.2
119.2
Points allowed / game
116.4
45.3 %
Field goal %
44.9 %
39.1 %
3-point %
34.0 %
37.8
3-pointers attempted / game
41.2
82.8 %
Free throw %
71.6 %
50.0
Rebounds / game
49.8
25.0
Assists / game
24.6
6.3
Steals / game
5.8
6.3
Blocks / game
4.0
15.5
Turnovers / game
16.8

Top performers

Grizzlies
Rayan RupertG · #1233pts / game
Rayan RupertG · #1210assists
Rayan RupertG · #1210rebounds
Bucks
Ryan RollinsG · #1324pts / game
Ousmane DiengF · #216assists
Myles TurnerC · #311rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
MEM
No games played yet.
MIL
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

Tied 1-1 this season.

Team comparison

MEMMIL
25-52Record30-47
115.7Points scored / game111.2
119.2Points allowed / game116.4
-2.9Adjusted margin / game-4.4
L3Current streakL2
2-8Last 10 games2-8
11-26 roadHome / road record17-22 home
48-34 (+4.9)Last season48-34 (+2.5)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Memphis Grizzlies Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Milwaukee Bucks Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.