Heat vs Pacers prediction NBA · Sunday, March 29
At a glance
The Indiana Pacers (16-58) host the Miami Heat (39-35) on Sunday, March 29 at 5:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in NBA action. Final score: Heat 118 – Pacers 135. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Heat a 68% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Pacers are 10-27 at home and the Heat are 16-21 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 1-9 for the Pacers and 4-6 for the Heat (current streaks: Pacers L2, Heat L1).
The analysis Model
The Heat are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Pacers 114 – 120 Heat, a margin of about 5.8 points in favor of the Heat and a total around 234 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.
- The overall strength gap (-6.1 vs +2.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Heat's offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Heat's defense allows clearly fewer points (116.6 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
MIAIND
Top performers
Heat
Tyler HerroG · #1131pts / game
Davion MitchellG · #28assists
Bam AdebayoC · #1312reboundsPacers
Pascal SiakamF · #4330pts / game
Andrew NembhardG · #210assistsPascal SiakamF · #4311reboundsRecent form
MIAIND
IND
Team comparison
| MIA | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 39-35 | Record | 16-58 |
| 118.9 | Points scored / game | 112.7 |
| 116.6 | Points allowed / game | 119.9 |
| +2.0 | Adjusted margin / game | -6.1 |
| L1 | Current streak | L2 |
| 4-6 | Last 10 games | 1-9 |
| 16-21 road | Home / road record | 10-27 home |
| 37-45 (+0.6) | Last season | 50-32 (+2.2) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Heat
Injury report Pacers
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.