Pacers vs Heat prediction NBA · Saturday, December 27
At a glance
The Miami Heat (16-15) host the Indiana Pacers (6-25) on Saturday, December 27 at 8:00 PM ET at Kaseya Center in NBA action. Final score: Pacers 116 – Heat 142. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Heat a 75% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Heat are 10-5 at home and the Pacers are 1-13 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 2-8 for the Heat and 2-8 for the Pacers (current streaks: Heat W1, Pacers L7).
The analysis Model
On paper, the Heat dominate this matchup. The model projects Heat 119 – 110 Pacers, a margin of about 8.6 points in favor of the Heat and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Heat and the Pacers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.
- The overall strength gap (+1.4 vs -4.9 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Heat's offense (117.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
INDMIA
Top performers
Pacers
Pascal SiakamF · #4333pts / game
Andrew NembhardG · #216assistsPascal SiakamF · #437reboundsHeat
Jaime Jaquez Jr.F · #2428pts / game
Nikola JovicF · #57assistsNikola JovicF · #57reboundsRecent form
INDMIA
IND
Team comparison
| IND | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-25 | Record | 16-15 |
| 111.8 | Points scored / game | 117.0 |
| 117.5 | Points allowed / game | 115.4 |
| -4.9 | Adjusted margin / game | +1.4 |
| L7 | Current streak | W1 |
| 2-8 | Last 10 games | 2-8 |
| 1-13 road | Home / road record | 10-5 home |
| 50-32 (+2.2) | Last season | 37-45 (+0.6) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Pacers
Injury report Heat
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.