Kings vs Hawks prediction NBA · Saturday, March 28
At a glance
The Atlanta Hawks (41-33) host the Sacramento Kings (19-55) on Saturday, March 28 at 7:30 PM ET at State Farm Arena in NBA action. Final score: Kings 113 – Hawks 123. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Hawks a 77% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Hawks are 21-16 at home and the Kings are 6-30 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 8-2 for the Hawks and 5-5 for the Kings (current streaks: Hawks L1, Kings L2).
The analysis Model
On paper, the Hawks dominate this matchup. The model projects Hawks 121 – 111 Kings, a margin of about 9.3 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hawks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.
- The overall strength gap (+1.1 vs -7.5 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Hawks' offense (118.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Hawks' defense allows clearly fewer points (116.9 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
SACATL
Top performers
Kings
DeMar DeRozanG · #1022pts / game
Malik MonkG · #07assists
Maxime RaynaudC · #4210reboundsHawks
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #727pts / game
Jalen JohnsonF · #110assists
Jock LandaleC · #3113reboundsRecent form
SACATL
ATL
Team comparison
| SAC | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 19-55 | Record | 41-33 |
| 111.5 | Points scored / game | 118.2 |
| 120.3 | Points allowed / game | 116.9 |
| -7.5 | Adjusted margin / game | +1.1 |
| L2 | Current streak | L1 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 games | 8-2 |
| 6-30 road | Home / road record | 21-16 home |
| 40-42 (+0.5) | Last season | 40-42 (-1.1) |
| No | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Kings
Injury report Hawks
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.