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Bucks vs Trail Blazers prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 25

FinalModa Center · KUNP 16, BlazerVision, FanDuel SN WI, NBA League Pass
36% win MILwin POR 64%
FavoritePOR
Projected margin4.5
Projected total229
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Portland Trail Blazers (36-37) host the Milwaukee Bucks (29-42) on Wednesday, March 25 at 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center in NBA action. Final score: Bucks 99 – Trail Blazers 130. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Trail Blazers a 64% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Trail Blazers are 19-16 at home and the Bucks are 13-23 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 6-4 for the Trail Blazers and 3-7 for the Bucks (current streaks: Trail Blazers W1, Bucks L1).

The analysis Model

The Trail Blazers are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Trail Blazers 117 – 112 Bucks, a margin of about 4.5 points in favor of the Trail Blazers and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.

  • The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Trail Blazers' offense (114.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Trail Blazers
Team strength (adjusted point differential)POR -1.6 / MIL -3.8 per game
+2.2
Home-court advantageTrail Blazers at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Trail Blazers
+4.5

Scenarios

Trail Blazers win by 10+
33%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
29%
Bucks win by 10+
12%

Stat comparison Current season

MILPOR
111.5
Points scored / game
114.7
115.9
Points allowed / game
116.5
44.9 %
Field goal %
51.1 %
34.0 %
3-point %
38.9 %
41.2
3-pointers attempted / game
43.7
71.6 %
Free throw %
70.8 %
49.8
Rebounds / game
46.3
24.6
Assists / game
30.7
5.8
Steals / game
8.3
4.0
Blocks / game
2.7
16.8
Turnovers / game
13.3

Top performers

Bucks
Ryan RollinsG · #1336pts / game
AJ GreenG · #205assists
Taurean PrinceF · #126rebounds
Trail Blazers
Scoot HendersonG · #0023pts / game
Jrue HolidayG · #58assists
Donovan ClinganC · #2315rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
MIL
No games played yet.
POR
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

POR lead 2-0 this season.

Team comparison

MILPOR
29-42Record36-37
111.5Points scored / game114.7
115.9Points allowed / game116.5
-3.8Adjusted margin / game-1.6
L1Current streakW1
3-7Last 10 games6-4
13-23 roadHome / road record19-16 home
48-34 (+2.5)Last season36-46 (-3.0)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Milwaukee Bucks Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Portland Trail Blazers Injury report Trail Blazers

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.