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Nets vs Warriors prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 25

FinalChase Center · NBC Sports BA, YES, NBA League Pass, DAZN (YES)
20% win BKNwin GS 80%
FavoriteGS
Projected margin10.6
Projected total225
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Golden State Warriors (34-38) host the Brooklyn Nets (17-55) on Wednesday, March 25 at 10:00 PM ET at Chase Center in NBA action. Final score: Nets 106 – Warriors 109. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Warriors a 80% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Warriors are 19-15 at home and the Nets are 8-29 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 2-8 for the Warriors and 2-8 for the Nets (current streaks: Warriors W1, Nets L8).

The analysis Model

On paper, the Warriors dominate this matchup. The model projects Warriors 118 – 107 Nets, a margin of about 10.6 points in favor of the Warriors and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.

  • The overall strength gap (+0.5 vs -7.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Nets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Warriors' offense (114.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Warriors
Team strength (adjusted point differential)GS +0.5 / BKN -7.8 per game
+8.3
Home-court advantageWarriors at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Warriors
+10.6

Scenarios

Warriors win by 10+
52%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
22%
Nets win by 10+
5%

Stat comparison Current season

BKNGS
106.1
Points scored / game
114.9
115.2
Points allowed / game
114.2
42.9 %
Field goal %
45.0 %
36.7 %
3-point %
36.9 %
42.3
3-pointers attempted / game
39.0
76.6 %
Free throw %
82.2 %
43.5
Rebounds / game
43.8
24.0
Assists / game
25.6
10.0
Steals / game
9.6
4.0
Blocks / game
3.8
17.5
Turnovers / game
16.8

Top performers

Nets
Ziaire WilliamsF · #1119pts / game
Ben SarafG · #777assists
Terance MannG · #145rebounds
Warriors
Gui SantosF · #1531pts / game
Brandin PodziemskiG · #25assists
De'Anthony MeltonG · #89rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
BKN
No games played yet.
GS
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

GS lead 2-0 this season.

Team comparison

BKNGS
17-55Record34-38
106.1Points scored / game114.9
115.2Points allowed / game114.2
-7.8Adjusted margin / game+0.5
L8Current streakW1
2-8Last 10 games2-8
8-29 roadHome / road record19-15 home
26-56 (-7.1)Last season48-34 (+3.3)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Brooklyn Nets Injury report Nets

No injuries reported.

Golden State Warriors Injury report Warriors

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.