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Timberwolves vs Celtics prediction NBA · Sunday, March 22

FinalTD Garden · NBC, Peacock
33% win MINwin BOS 67%
FavoriteBOS
Projected margin5.5
Projected total227
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Boston Celtics (47-23) host the Minnesota Timberwolves (43-28) on Sunday, March 22 at 8:00 PM ET at TD Garden in NBA action. Final score: Timberwolves 102 – Celtics 92. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Celtics a 67% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Celtics are 24-10 at home and the Timberwolves are 19-15 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 7-3 for the Celtics and 5-5 for the Timberwolves (current streaks: Celtics W4, Timberwolves L1).

The analysis Model

The Celtics are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Celtics 116 – 111 Timberwolves, a margin of about 5.5 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.

  • The Timberwolves need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Timberwolves' offense (118.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Celtics
Team strength (adjusted point differential)BOS +6.5 / MIN +3.4 per game
+3.2
Home-court advantageCeltics at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Celtics
+5.5

Scenarios

Celtics win by 10+
36%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
28%
Timberwolves win by 10+
11%

Stat comparison Current season

MINBOS
118.0
Points scored / game
114.7
114.0
Points allowed / game
107.0
47.3 %
Field goal %
46.5 %
38.4 %
3-point %
38.6 %
40.6
3-pointers attempted / game
41.5
62.7 %
Free throw %
76.0 %
51.6
Rebounds / game
44.3
27.0
Assists / game
27.8
9.2
Steals / game
9.0
4.4
Blocks / game
3.8
16.2
Turnovers / game
15.5

Top performers

Timberwolves
Bones HylandG · #823pts / game
Ayo DosunmuG · #136assists
Rudy GobertC · #2714rebounds
Celtics
Jaylen BrownG · #729pts / game
Jaylen BrownG · #74assists
Jayson TatumF · #011rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
MIN
No games played yet.
BOS
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

MIN lead 2-0 this season.

Team comparison

MINBOS
43-28Record47-23
118.0Points scored / game114.7
114.0Points allowed / game107.0
+3.4Adjusted margin / game+6.5
L1Current streakW4
5-5Last 10 games7-3
19-15 roadHome / road record24-10 home
49-33 (+5.0)Last season61-21 (+9.1)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Minnesota Timberwolves Injury report Timberwolves

No injuries reported.

Boston Celtics Injury report Celtics

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.