Heat vs Rockets prediction NBA · Saturday, March 21
At a glance
The Houston Rockets (42-27) host the Miami Heat (38-32) on Saturday, March 21 at 8:00 PM ET at Toyota Center (Houston) in NBA action. Final score: Heat 122 – Rockets 123. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Rockets a 56% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Rockets are 24-10 at home and the Heat are 15-19 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 5-5 for the Rockets and 7-3 for the Heat (current streaks: Rockets W1, Heat L3).
The analysis Model
A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Rockets 115 – 113 Heat, a margin of about 1.9 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Rockets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.
- The Heat need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Heat's offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.8 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
MIAHOU
Top performers
Heat
Bam AdebayoC · #1332pts / game
Davion MitchellG · #29assistsBam AdebayoC · #1321reboundsRockets
Kevin DurantF · #727pts / game
Reed SheppardG · #1514assists
Amen ThompsonG · #118reboundsRecent form
MIAHOU
HOU
Team comparison
| MIA | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 38-32 | Record | 42-27 |
| 118.9 | Points scored / game | 113.9 |
| 116.1 | Points allowed / game | 109.8 |
| +2.4 | Adjusted margin / game | +3.6 |
| L3 | Current streak | W1 |
| 7-3 | Last 10 games | 5-5 |
| 15-19 road | Home / road record | 24-10 home |
| 37-45 (+0.6) | Last season | 52-30 (+4.5) |
| No | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Heat
Injury report Rockets
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.