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Grizzlies vs Hornets prediction NBA · Saturday, March 21

FinalSpectrum Center · FanDuel SN SE, NBA League Pass
29% win MEMwin CHA 71%
FavoriteCHA
Projected margin7.0
Projected total229
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Charlotte Hornets (36-34) host the Memphis Grizzlies (24-45) on Saturday, March 21 at 7:00 PM ET at Spectrum Center in NBA action. Final score: Grizzlies 101 – Hornets 124. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Hornets a 71% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Hornets are 16-17 at home and the Grizzlies are 11-24 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 7-3 for the Hornets and 1-9 for the Grizzlies (current streaks: Hornets W2, Grizzlies L1).

The analysis Model

The Hornets are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Hornets 118 – 111 Grizzlies, a margin of about 7.0 points in favor of the Hornets and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Grizzlies played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.

  • The Grizzlies need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Hornets' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hornets
Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHA +1.6 / MEM -1.5 per game
+3.1
Home-court advantageHornets at home
+2.3
Back-to-backGrizzlies played yesterday
+1.6
Expected marginfor Hornets
+7.0

Scenarios

Hornets win by 10+
41%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
27%
Grizzlies win by 10+
9%

Stat comparison Current season

MEMCHA
116.6
Points scored / game
114.4
118.3
Points allowed / game
112.5
45.3 %
Field goal %
41.7 %
39.1 %
3-point %
30.6 %
37.8
3-pointers attempted / game
43.2
82.8 %
Free throw %
85.2 %
50.0
Rebounds / game
47.4
25.0
Assists / game
20.6
6.3
Steals / game
6.8
6.3
Blocks / game
5.2
15.5
Turnovers / game
19.0

Top performers

Grizzlies
GG JacksonF · #4519pts / game
DeJon JarreauG · #774assists
Javon SmallG · #107rebounds
Hornets
LaMelo BallG · #129pts / game
Coby WhiteG · #37assists
Moussa DiabateF · #1414rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
MEM
No games played yet.
CHA
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

CHA lead 2-0 this season.

Team comparison

MEMCHA
24-45Record36-34
116.6Points scored / game114.4
118.3Points allowed / game112.5
-1.5Adjusted margin / game+1.6
L1Current streakW2
1-9Last 10 games7-3
11-24 roadHome / road record16-17 home
48-34 (+4.9)Last season19-63 (-9.1)
YesPlayed yesterdayNo

Memphis Grizzlies Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Charlotte Hornets Injury report Hornets

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.