Cavaliers vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Friday, March 13
At a glance
The Dallas Mavericks (22-44) host the Cleveland Cavaliers (40-26) on Friday, March 13 at 7:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. Final score: Cavaliers 138 – Mavericks 105. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Cavaliers a 71% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Mavericks are 14-19 at home and the Cavaliers are 18-14 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 2-8 for the Mavericks and 5-5 for the Cavaliers (current streaks: Mavericks W1, Cavaliers L1).
The analysis Model
The Cavaliers are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Mavericks 112 – 119 Cavaliers, a margin of about 6.9 points in favor of the Cavaliers and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Mavericks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.
- The overall strength gap (-3.5 vs +4.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Cavaliers' offense (119.3 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
CLEDAL
Top performers
Cavaliers
Evan MobleyC · #429pts / game
Donovan MitchellG · #458assistsEvan MobleyC · #47reboundsMavericks
Cooper FlaggF · #3225pts / game
Ryan NembhardG · #99assists
Dwight PowellF · #711reboundsRecent form
CLEDAL
CLE
Team comparison
| CLE | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 40-26 | Record | 22-44 |
| 119.3 | Points scored / game | 113.2 |
| 114.4 | Points allowed / game | 117.4 |
| +4.1 | Adjusted margin / game | -3.5 |
| L1 | Current streak | W1 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 games | 2-8 |
| 18-14 road | Home / road record | 14-19 home |
| 64-18 (+9.5) | Last season | 39-43 (-1.2) |
| No | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Cavaliers
Injury report Mavericks
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.