Raptors vs Pelicans prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 11
At a glance
The New Orleans Pelicans (21-45) host the Toronto Raptors (36-28) on Wednesday, March 11 at 8:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center in NBA action. Final score: Raptors 111 – Pelicans 122. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Raptors a 54% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Pelicans are 12-21 at home and the Raptors are 19-12 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 6-4 for the Pelicans and 4-6 for the Raptors (current streaks: Pelicans W1, Raptors L1).
The analysis Model
Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Pelicans 114 – 115 Raptors, a margin of about 1.3 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Raptors played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.
- The overall strength gap (-4.6 vs +0.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.3 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
TORNO
Top performers
Raptors
Immanuel QuickleyG · #525pts / game
Brandon IngramF · #75assists
RJ BarrettF · #97reboundsPelicans
Trey Murphy IIIF · #2528pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56assists
Yves MissiC · #2110reboundsRecent form
TORNO
TOR
Team comparison
| TOR | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 36-28 | Record | 21-45 |
| 113.0 | Points scored / game | 114.6 |
| 112.3 | Points allowed / game | 120.0 |
| +0.7 | Adjusted margin / game | -4.6 |
| L1 | Current streak | W1 |
| 4-6 | Last 10 games | 6-4 |
| 19-12 road | Home / road record | 12-21 home |
| 30-52 (-4.3) | Last season | 21-61 (-9.4) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Raptors
Injury report Pelicans
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.