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Mavericks vs Hawks prediction NBA · Tuesday, March 10

FinalState Farm Arena · KFAA-TV, MavsTV, FanDuel SN SE, NBA League Pass
32% win DALwin ATL 68%
FavoriteATL
Projected margin6.0
Projected total233
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Atlanta Hawks (33-31) host the Dallas Mavericks (21-43) on Tuesday, March 10 at 7:30 PM ET at State Farm Arena in NBA action. Final score: Mavericks 112 – Hawks 124. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Hawks a 68% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Hawks are 15-16 at home and the Mavericks are 7-24 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 7-3 for the Hawks and 2-8 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Hawks W6, Mavericks L7).

The analysis Model

The Hawks are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Hawks 119 – 113 Mavericks, a margin of about 6.0 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.

  • The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Hawks' offense (117.8 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hawks
Team strength (adjusted point differential)ATL +0.2 / DAL -3.6 per game
+3.7
Home-court advantageHawks at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Hawks
+6.0

Scenarios

Hawks win by 10+
38%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
28%
Mavericks win by 10+
10%

Stat comparison Current season

DALATL
113.2
Points scored / game
117.8
117.4
Points allowed / game
117.6
49.0 %
Field goal %
46.9 %
34.6 %
3-point %
34.8 %
38.2
3-pointers attempted / game
41.4
76.7 %
Free throw %
72.8 %
44.2
Rebounds / game
41.4
27.6
Assists / game
32.2
9.0
Steals / game
10.2
7.4
Blocks / game
3.6
15.6
Turnovers / game
14.0

Top performers

Mavericks
Klay ThompsonG · #1121pts / game
Marvin Bagley IIIF · #36assists
Cooper FlaggF · #3212rebounds
Hawks
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #729pts / game
Dyson DanielsG · #510assists
Onyeka OkongwuF · #179rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
DAL
No games played yet.
ATL
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

ATL lead 2-0 this season.

Team comparison

DALATL
21-43Record33-31
113.2Points scored / game117.8
117.4Points allowed / game117.6
-3.6Adjusted margin / game+0.2
L7Current streakW6
2-8Last 10 games7-3
7-24 roadHome / road record15-16 home
39-43 (-1.2)Last season40-42 (-1.1)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Dallas Mavericks Injury report Mavericks

No injuries reported.

Atlanta Hawks Injury report Hawks

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.