Mavericks vs Celtics prediction NBA · Friday, March 6
At a glance
The Boston Celtics (41-21) host the Dallas Mavericks (21-41) on Friday, March 6 at 7:00 PM ET at TD Garden in NBA action. Final score: Mavericks 100 – Celtics 120. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Celtics a 86% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Celtics are 20-10 at home and the Mavericks are 7-22 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 7-3 for the Celtics and 2-8 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Celtics L1, Mavericks L5).
The analysis Model
On paper, the Celtics dominate this matchup. The model projects Celtics 119 – 106 Mavericks, a margin of about 13.5 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Mavericks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.
- The overall strength gap (+6.5 vs -3.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.1 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
DALBOS
Top performers
Mavericks
Klay ThompsonG · #1119pts / game
Cooper FlaggF · #326assistsCooper FlaggF · #328reboundsCeltics
Jaylen BrownG · #724pts / gameJaylen BrownG · #77assists
Neemias QuetaC · #8815reboundsRecent form
DALBOS
BOS
Team comparison
| DAL | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-41 | Record | 41-21 |
| 113.6 | Points scored / game | 114.7 |
| 117.3 | Points allowed / game | 107.1 |
| -3.1 | Adjusted margin / game | +6.5 |
| L5 | Current streak | L1 |
| 2-8 | Last 10 games | 7-3 |
| 7-22 road | Home / road record | 20-10 home |
| 39-43 (-1.2) | Last season | 61-21 (+9.1) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Mavericks
Injury report Celtics
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.