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Bulls vs Suns prediction NBA · Thursday, March 5

FinalMortgage Matchup Center · CHSN, NBA League Pass, Arizona's Family 3TV, Suns Live
Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls
26-37 · away
Final score
105-103
Projected: 112-118
Phoenix Suns
Phoenix Suns
35-27 · home
32% win CHIwin PHX 68%
FavoritePHX
Projected margin5.8
Projected total230
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Phoenix Suns (35-26) host the Chicago Bulls (25-37) on Thursday, March 5 at 9:00 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. Final score: Bulls 105 – Suns 103. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Suns a 68% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Suns are 20-12 at home and the Bulls are 9-19 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 4-6 for the Suns and 1-9 for the Bulls (current streaks: Suns W2, Bulls L1).

The analysis Model

The Suns are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Suns 118 – 112 Bulls, a margin of about 5.8 points in favor of the Suns and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.

  • The Bulls need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Bulls' offense (116.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Suns' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.1 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Suns
Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHX +0.2 / CHI -3.3 per game
+3.5
Home-court advantageSuns at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Suns
+5.8

Scenarios

Suns win by 10+
37%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
28%
Bulls win by 10+
10%

Stat comparison Current season

CHIPHX
116.0
Points scored / game
112.4
119.9
Points allowed / game
112.1
42.1 %
Field goal %
45.6 %
27.6 %
3-point %
31.9 %
42.0
3-pointers attempted / game
39.7
78.6 %
Free throw %
73.9 %
44.8
Rebounds / game
39.7
24.4
Assists / game
25.3
9.0
Steals / game
8.7
4.8
Blocks / game
5.3
17.8
Turnovers / game
14.0

Top performers

Bulls
Collin SextonG · #1030pts / game
Collin SextonG · #105assists
Nick RichardsC · #811rebounds
Suns
Devin BookerG · #1527pts / game
Grayson AllenG · #88assists
Ryan DunnF · #011rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
CHI
No games played yet.
PHX
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

Tied 1-1 this season.

Team comparison

CHIPHX
25-37Record35-26
116.0Points scored / game112.4
119.9Points allowed / game112.1
-3.3Adjusted margin / game+0.2
L1Current streakW2
1-9Last 10 games4-6
9-19 roadHome / road record20-12 home
39-43 (-1.6)Last season36-46 (-3.0)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Chicago Bulls Injury report Bulls

No injuries reported.

Phoenix Suns Injury report Suns

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.