Thunder vs Knicks prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 4
At a glance
The New York Knicks (41-22) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (48-15) on Wednesday, March 4 at 7:00 PM ET at Madison Square Garden in NBA action. Final score: Thunder 103 – Knicks 100. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 58% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Knicks are 24-8 at home and the Thunder are 23-8 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 7-3 for the Knicks and 8-2 for the Thunder (current streaks: Knicks W3, Thunder W3).
The analysis Model
A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Knicks 112 – 114 Thunder, a margin of about 2.4 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Knicks and the Thunder played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.
- The overall strength gap (+5.1 vs +9.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Knicks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
OKCNY
Top performers
Thunder
Chet HolmgrenC · #728pts / game
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #28assistsChet HolmgrenC · #78reboundsKnicks
Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3217pts / game
Jalen BrunsonG · #1115assistsKarl-Anthony TownsC · #3217reboundsRecent form
OKCNY
OKC
Team comparison
| OKC | NY | |
|---|---|---|
| 48-15 | Record | 41-22 |
| 119.3 | Points scored / game | 117.0 |
| 107.8 | Points allowed / game | 111.0 |
| +9.8 | Adjusted margin / game | +5.1 |
| W3 | Current streak | W3 |
| 8-2 | Last 10 games | 7-3 |
| 23-8 road | Home / road record | 24-8 home |
| 68-14 (+12.9) | Last season | 51-31 (+4.1) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Thunder
Injury report Knicks
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.