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Nets vs Heat prediction NBA · Tuesday, March 3

FinalKaseya Center · FanDuel SN Sun, YES, NBA League Pass, DAZN (YES)

Brooklyn Nets

15-46 · away

Final score

98-124

Projected: 108-120

Miami Heat

33-29 · home

18% win BKNwin MIA 82%

FavoriteMIA

Projected margin11.4

Projected total228

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Miami Heat (32-29) host the Brooklyn Nets (15-45) on Tuesday, March 3 at 7:30 PM ET at Kaseya Center in NBA action. Final score: Nets 98 – Heat 124. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Heat a 82% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Heat are 18-11 at home and the Nets are 7-23 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 5-5 for the Heat and 2-8 for the Nets (current streaks: Heat W1, Nets L8).

The analysis Model

On paper, the Heat dominate this matchup. The model projects Heat 120 – 108 Nets, a margin of about 11.4 points in favor of the Heat and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.

The overall strength gap (+2.1 vs -7.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Nets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Heat's offense (118.3 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Heat

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIA +2.1 / BKN -7.0 per game

+9.1

Home-court advantageHeat at home

+2.3

Expected marginfor Heat

+11.4

Scenarios

Heat win by 10+

55%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

21%

Nets win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

BKNMIA

106.6

Points scored / game

118.3

114.9

Points allowed / game

115.8

42.9 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

36.7 %

3-point %

31.7 %

42.3

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

76.6 %

Free throw %

71.7 %

43.5

Rebounds / game

42.8

24.0

Assists / game

27.0

10.0

Steals / game

8.4

4.0

Blocks / game

5.4

17.5

Turnovers / game

14.2

Top performers

Nets

Noah ClowneyF · #2117pts / game

Danny WolfF · #25assists

Day'Ron SharpeC · #208rebounds

Heat

Bam AdebayoC · #1323pts / game

Kasparas JakucionisG · #255assists

Kel'el WareC · #913rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

BKN

No games played yet.

MIA

No games played yet.

Head-to-head

MIA lead 3-0 this season.

Team comparison

BKN		MIA
15-45	Record	32-29
106.6	Points scored / game	118.3
114.9	Points allowed / game	115.8
-7.0	Adjusted margin / game	+2.1
L8	Current streak	W1
2-8	Last 10 games	5-5
7-23 road	Home / road record	18-11 home
26-56 (-7.1)	Last season	37-45 (+0.6)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Nets

No injuries reported.

Injury report Heat

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.