Heat vs Nets prediction NBA · Thursday, December 18
FinalBarclays Center · FanDuel SN Sun, NBA League Pass, YES, DAZN (YES)
65% win MIAwin BKN 35%
FavoriteMIA
Projected margin4.8
Projected total228
ConfidenceMedium
At a glance
The Brooklyn Nets (7-18) host the Miami Heat (14-12) on Thursday, December 18 at 7:30 PM ET at Barclays Center in NBA action. Final score: Heat 106 – Nets 95. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Heat a 65% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Nets are 3-10 at home and the Heat are 4-8 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 4-6 for the Nets and 4-6 for the Heat (current streaks: Nets W1, Heat L5).
The analysis Model
The Heat are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Nets 112 – 116 Heat, a margin of about 4.8 points in favor of the Heat and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.
- The overall strength gap (-5.2 vs +1.9 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Nets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Heat's offense (117.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
In points, positive = edge Nets
Team strength (adjusted point differential)BKN -5.2 / MIA +1.9 per game
-7.1
Home-court advantageNets at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Nets
-4.8
Scenarios
Nets win by 10+
12%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
29%
Heat win by 10+
34%
Stat comparison Current season
MIABKN
117.5108.5
115.3114.7
45.3 %42.9 %
31.7 %36.7 %
37.842.3
71.7 %76.6 %
42.843.5
27.024.0
8.410.0
5.44.0
14.217.5
Top performers
Heat
Norman PowellG · #2424pts / game
Davion MitchellG · #27assists
Bam AdebayoC · #1317reboundsNets
Michael Porter Jr.F · #1728pts / game
Nic ClaxtonC · #98assistsNic ClaxtonC · #912reboundsRecent form
Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
MIANo games played yet.
BKNNo games played yet.
MIA
Team comparison
| MIA | BKN | |
|---|---|---|
| 14-12 | Record | 7-18 |
| 117.5 | Points scored / game | 108.5 |
| 115.3 | Points allowed / game | 114.7 |
| +1.9 | Adjusted margin / game | -5.2 |
| L5 | Current streak | W1 |
| 4-6 | Last 10 games | 4-6 |
| 4-8 road | Home / road record | 3-10 home |
| 37-45 (+0.6) | Last season | 26-56 (-7.1) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Heat
No injuries reported.
Injury report Nets
No injuries reported.
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.