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Bucks vs Pelicans prediction NBA · Friday, February 20

FinalSmoothie King Center · GCSEN, Pelicans.com, FanDuel SN WI, NBA League Pass
54% win MILwin NO 46%
FavoriteMIL
Projected margin1.2
Projected total231
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The New Orleans Pelicans (15-41) host the Milwaukee Bucks (23-30) on Friday, February 20 at 8:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center in NBA action. Final score: Bucks 139 – Pelicans 118. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Bucks a 54% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Pelicans are 9-20 at home and the Bucks are 11-18 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 5-5 for the Pelicans and 5-5 for the Bucks (current streaks: Pelicans L1, Bucks W2).

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Pelicans 115 – 116 Bucks, a margin of about 1.2 points in favor of the Bucks and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.

  • The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Bucks' defense allows clearly fewer points (114.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pelicans
Team strength (adjusted point differential)NO -5.5 / MIL -2.0 per game
-3.5
Home-court advantagePelicans at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Pelicans
-1.2

Scenarios

Pelicans win by 10+
18%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Bucks win by 10+
24%

Stat comparison Current season

MILNO
112.5
Points scored / game
113.7
114.8
Points allowed / game
120.2
44.9 %
Field goal %
46.5 %
34.0 %
3-point %
29.0 %
41.2
3-pointers attempted / game
31.0
71.6 %
Free throw %
83.6 %
49.8
Rebounds / game
44.3
24.6
Assists / game
23.5
5.8
Steals / game
12.3
4.0
Blocks / game
4.8
16.8
Turnovers / game
16.5

Top performers

Bucks
Cam ThomasG · #2427pts / game
Kevin Porter Jr.G · #77assists
Bobby PortisF · #9511rebounds
Pelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #132pts / game
Jeremiah FearsG · #05assists
Derik QueenC · #229rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
MIL
No games played yet.
NO
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

MIL lead 2-0 this season.

Team comparison

MILNO
23-30Record15-41
112.5Points scored / game113.7
114.8Points allowed / game120.2
-2.0Adjusted margin / game-5.5
W2Current streakL1
5-5Last 10 games5-5
11-18 roadHome / road record9-20 home
48-34 (+2.5)Last season21-61 (-9.4)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Milwaukee Bucks Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

New Orleans Pelicans Injury report Pelicans

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.