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Pelicans vs 76ers prediction NBA · Saturday, January 31

FinalXfinity Mobile Arena · NBC Sports Phil, GCSEN, Pelicans.com, NBA League Pass
23% win NOwin PHI 77%
FavoritePHI
Projected margin9.3
Projected total231
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Philadelphia 76ers (26-21) host the New Orleans Pelicans (13-37) on Saturday, January 31 at 7:30 PM ET at Xfinity Mobile Arena in NBA action. Final score: Pelicans 114 – 76ers 124. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the 76ers a 77% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the 76ers are 14-13 at home and the Pelicans are 5-18 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 5-5 for the 76ers and 4-6 for the Pelicans (current streaks: 76ers W2, Pelicans W1).

The analysis Model

The 76ers start with a clear edge. The model projects 76ers 120 – 111 Pelicans, a margin of about 9.3 points in favor of the 76ers and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pelicans played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.

  • The overall strength gap (-0.6 vs -6.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The 76ers' defense allows clearly fewer points (115.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge 76ers
Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHI -0.6 / NO -6.0 per game
+5.4
Home-court advantage76ers at home
+2.3
Back-to-backPelicans played yesterday
+1.6
Expected marginfor 76ers
+9.3

Scenarios

76ers win by 10+
48%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
24%
Pelicans win by 10+
6%

Stat comparison Current season

NOPHI
113.5
Points scored / game
115.1
120.6
Points allowed / game
115.8
46.5 %
Field goal %
42.8 %
29.0 %
3-point %
32.6 %
31.0
3-pointers attempted / game
35.0
83.6 %
Free throw %
77.5 %
44.3
Rebounds / game
42.2
23.5
Assists / game
24.6
12.3
Steals / game
9.8
4.8
Blocks / game
5.6
16.5
Turnovers / game
12.6

Top performers

Pelicans
Saddiq BeyG · #4134pts / game
Herbert JonesF · #25assists
Trey Murphy IIIF · #259rebounds
76ers
Joel EmbiidC · #2140pts / game
Tyrese MaxeyG · #08assists
Joel EmbiidC · #2111rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
NO
No games played yet.
PHI
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

Tied 1-1 this season.

Team comparison

NOPHI
13-37Record26-21
113.5Points scored / game115.1
120.6Points allowed / game115.8
-6.0Adjusted margin / game-0.6
W1Current streakW2
4-6Last 10 games5-5
5-18 roadHome / road record14-13 home
21-61 (-9.4)Last season24-58 (-6.2)
YesPlayed yesterdayNo

New Orleans Pelicans Injury report Pelicans

No injuries reported.

Philadelphia 76ers Injury report 76ers

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.