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Pistons vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Tuesday, January 27

FinalBall Arena · FanDuel SN DET, NBA League Pass, Altitude Sports
48% win DETwin DEN 52%
FavoriteDEN
Projected margin0.8
Projected total232
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Denver Nuggets (31-15) host the Detroit Pistons (33-11) on Tuesday, January 27 at 9:00 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. Final score: Pistons 109 – Nuggets 107. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Nuggets a 52% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Nuggets are 12-8 at home and the Pistons are 14-6 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 7-3 for the Nuggets and 8-2 for the Pistons (current streaks: Nuggets W2, Pistons W1).

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Nuggets 117 – 116 Pistons, a margin of about 0.8 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 232 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.

  • The Pistons need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Nuggets' offense (120.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nuggets
Team strength (adjusted point differential)DEN +3.7 / DET +5.2 per game
-1.5
Home-court advantageNuggets at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Nuggets
+0.8

Scenarios

Nuggets win by 10+
23%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Pistons win by 10+
19%

Stat comparison Current season

DETDEN
117.0
Points scored / game
120.7
110.8
Points allowed / game
116.3
45.9 %
Field goal %
45.8 %
37.9 %
3-point %
32.8 %
36.4
3-pointers attempted / game
34.3
74.4 %
Free throw %
79.6 %
46.8
Rebounds / game
44.5
27.0
Assists / game
26.0
8.0
Steals / game
10.0
7.2
Blocks / game
4.8
15.6
Turnovers / game
15.3

Top performers

Pistons
Tobias HarrisF · #2322pts / game
Cade CunninghamG · #211assists
Tobias HarrisF · #238rebounds
Nuggets
Jamal MurrayG · #2724pts / game
Jamal MurrayG · #2710assists
Jonas ValanciunasC · #1716rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
DET
No games played yet.
DEN
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

DET lead 2-0 this season.

Team comparison

DETDEN
33-11Record31-15
117.0Points scored / game120.7
110.8Points allowed / game116.3
+5.2Adjusted margin / game+3.7
W1Current streakW2
8-2Last 10 games7-3
14-6 roadHome / road record12-8 home
44-38 (+1.9)Last season50-32 (+3.9)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Detroit Pistons Injury report Pistons

No injuries reported.

Denver Nuggets Injury report Nuggets

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.