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Trail Blazers vs Celtics prediction NBA · Monday, January 26

FinalTD Garden · Peacock, NBC Sports BO
21% win PORwin BOS 79%
FavoriteBOS
Projected margin10.1
Projected total229
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Boston Celtics (28-17) host the Portland Trail Blazers (23-23) on Monday, January 26 at 8:00 PM ET at TD Garden in NBA action. Final score: Trail Blazers 94 – Celtics 102. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Celtics a 79% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Celtics are 13-7 at home and the Trail Blazers are 10-12 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 5-5 for the Celtics and 7-3 for the Trail Blazers (current streaks: Celtics L1, Trail Blazers L1).

The analysis Model

On paper, the Celtics dominate this matchup. The model projects Celtics 120 – 110 Trail Blazers, a margin of about 10.1 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.

  • The overall strength gap (+6.1 vs -1.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Trail Blazers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Celtics
Team strength (adjusted point differential)BOS +6.1 / POR -1.7 per game
+7.8
Home-court advantageCeltics at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Celtics
+10.1

Scenarios

Celtics win by 10+
50%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
23%
Trail Blazers win by 10+
5%

Stat comparison Current season

PORBOS
115.0
Points scored / game
116.8
117.0
Points allowed / game
109.6
51.1 %
Field goal %
46.5 %
38.9 %
3-point %
38.6 %
43.7
3-pointers attempted / game
41.5
70.8 %
Free throw %
76.0 %
46.3
Rebounds / game
44.3
30.7
Assists / game
27.8
8.3
Steals / game
9.0
2.7
Blocks / game
3.8
13.3
Turnovers / game
15.5

Top performers

Trail Blazers
Jerami GrantF · #319pts / game
Caleb LoveG · #85assists
Donovan ClinganC · #2315rebounds
Celtics
Payton PritchardG · #1123pts / game
Neemias QuetaC · #886assists
Jaylen BrownG · #78rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
POR
No games played yet.
BOS
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

Tied 1-1 this season.

Team comparison

PORBOS
23-23Record28-17
115.0Points scored / game116.8
117.0Points allowed / game109.6
-1.7Adjusted margin / game+6.1
L1Current streakL1
7-3Last 10 games5-5
10-12 roadHome / road record13-7 home
36-46 (-3.0)Last season61-21 (+9.1)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Portland Trail Blazers Injury report Trail Blazers

No injuries reported.

Boston Celtics Injury report Celtics

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.