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Celtics vs Trail Blazers prediction NBA · Sunday, December 28

FinalModa Center · BlazerVision, NBC Sports BO, NBA League Pass
71% win BOSwin POR 29%
FavoriteBOS
Projected margin6.9
Projected total230
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Portland Trail Blazers (12-19) host the Boston Celtics (19-11) on Sunday, December 28 at 6:00 PM ET at Moda Center in NBA action. Final score: Celtics 108 – Trail Blazers 114. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Celtics a 71% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Trail Blazers are 5-9 at home and the Celtics are 9-6 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 4-6 for the Trail Blazers and 8-2 for the Celtics (current streaks: Trail Blazers L3, Celtics W4).

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Celtics, but the Trail Blazers have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Trail Blazers 112 – 118 Celtics, a margin of about 6.9 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.

  • The overall strength gap (-3.0 vs +6.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Trail Blazers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Trail Blazers
Team strength (adjusted point differential)POR -3.0 / BOS +6.1 per game
-9.2
Home-court advantageTrail Blazers at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Trail Blazers
-6.9

Scenarios

Trail Blazers win by 10+
9%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
27%
Celtics win by 10+
40%

Stat comparison Current season

BOSPOR
116.6
Points scored / game
115.0
109.5
Points allowed / game
118.6
46.5 %
Field goal %
51.1 %
38.6 %
3-point %
38.9 %
41.5
3-pointers attempted / game
43.7
76.0 %
Free throw %
70.8 %
44.3
Rebounds / game
46.3
27.8
Assists / game
30.7
9.0
Steals / game
8.3
3.8
Blocks / game
2.7
15.5
Turnovers / game
13.3

Top performers

Celtics
Jaylen BrownG · #737pts / game
Derrick WhiteG · #95assists
Neemias QuetaC · #888rebounds
Trail Blazers
Shaedon SharpeG · #1726pts / game
Deni AvdijaF · #810assists
Donovan ClinganC · #2318rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
BOS
No games played yet.
POR
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

Tied 1-1 this season.

Team comparison

BOSPOR
19-11Record12-19
116.6Points scored / game115.0
109.5Points allowed / game118.6
+6.1Adjusted margin / game-3.0
W4Current streakL3
8-2Last 10 games4-6
9-6 roadHome / road record5-9 home
61-21 (+9.1)Last season36-46 (-3.0)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Boston Celtics Injury report Celtics

No injuries reported.

Portland Trail Blazers Injury report Trail Blazers

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.