Heat vs Suns prediction NBA · Sunday, January 25
At a glance
The Phoenix Suns (27-18) host the Miami Heat (24-22) on Sunday, January 25 at 8:00 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. Final score: Heat 111 – Suns 102. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Suns a 63% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Suns are 14-5 at home and the Heat are 9-15 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 6-4 for the Suns and 4-6 for the Heat (current streaks: Suns L1, Heat W1).
The analysis Model
The Suns are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Suns 117 – 113 Heat, a margin of about 4.0 points in favor of the Suns and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Heat played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.
- The Heat need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Heat's offense (118.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Suns' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.8 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
MIAPHX
Top performers
Heat
Bam AdebayoC · #1322pts / game
Jaime Jaquez Jr.F · #246assists
Norman PowellG · #2410reboundsSuns
Dillon BrooksF · #326pts / game
Royce O'NealeF · #005assists
Mark WilliamsC · #258reboundsRecent form
MIAPHX
PHX
Team comparison
| MIA | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-22 | Record | 27-18 |
| 118.0 | Points scored / game | 114.3 |
| 116.7 | Points allowed / game | 112.8 |
| +1.1 | Adjusted margin / game | +1.2 |
| W1 | Current streak | L1 |
| 4-6 | Last 10 games | 6-4 |
| 9-15 road | Home / road record | 14-5 home |
| 37-45 (+0.6) | Last season | 36-46 (-3.0) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Heat
Injury report Suns
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.