Raptors vs Thunder prediction NBA · Sunday, January 25
At a glance
The Oklahoma City Thunder (37-9) host the Toronto Raptors (28-19) on Sunday, January 25 at 7:00 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. Final score: Raptors 103 – Thunder 101. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 85% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Thunder are 20-4 at home and the Raptors are 15-9 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 7-3 for the Thunder and 6-4 for the Raptors (current streaks: Thunder L1, Raptors W3).
The analysis Model
The Thunder start with a clear edge. The model projects Thunder 120 – 107 Raptors, a margin of about 12.8 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.
- The overall strength gap (+11.2 vs +0.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Raptors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's offense (121.1 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (107.9 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
TOROKC
Top performers
Raptors
Immanuel QuickleyG · #523pts / game
Scottie BarnesF · #48assistsImmanuel QuickleyG · #511reboundsThunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #224pts / gameShai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #26assists
Chet HolmgrenC · #710reboundsRecent form
TOROKC
TOR
Team comparison
| TOR | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-19 | Record | 37-9 |
| 113.6 | Points scored / game | 121.1 |
| 112.8 | Points allowed / game | 107.9 |
| +0.7 | Adjusted margin / game | +11.2 |
| W3 | Current streak | L1 |
| 6-4 | Last 10 games | 7-3 |
| 15-9 road | Home / road record | 20-4 home |
| 30-52 (-4.3) | Last season | 68-14 (+12.9) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Raptors
Injury report Thunder
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.