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Rockets vs Pistons prediction NBA · Friday, January 23

FinalLittle Caesars Arena · Prime Video, Space City Home Network
37% win HOUwin DET 63%
FavoriteDET
Projected margin4.2
Projected total226
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Detroit Pistons (32-10) host the Houston Rockets (26-16) on Friday, January 23 at 7:00 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena in NBA action. Final score: Rockets 111 – Pistons 104. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Pistons a 63% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Pistons are 18-4 at home and the Rockets are 11-13 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 8-2 for the Pistons and 5-5 for the Rockets (current streaks: Pistons W4, Rockets L1).

The analysis Model

The Pistons are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Pistons 115 – 111 Rockets, a margin of about 4.2 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Rockets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.

  • The Rockets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pistons
Team strength (adjusted point differential)DET +5.2 / HOU +4.9 per game
+0.3
Home-court advantagePistons at home
+2.3
Back-to-backRockets played yesterday
+1.6
Expected marginfor Pistons
+4.2

Scenarios

Pistons win by 10+
32%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
29%
Rockets win by 10+
13%

Stat comparison Current season

HOUDET
116.5
Points scored / game
116.8
110.7
Points allowed / game
110.7
51.7 %
Field goal %
45.9 %
40.4 %
3-point %
37.9 %
32.2
3-pointers attempted / game
36.4
84.7 %
Free throw %
74.4 %
44.8
Rebounds / game
46.8
28.2
Assists / game
27.0
10.2
Steals / game
8.0
6.0
Blocks / game
7.2
15.8
Turnovers / game
15.6

Top performers

Rockets
Kevin DurantF · #732pts / game
Amen ThompsonG · #17assists
Jabari Smith Jr.F · #1010rebounds
Pistons
Jalen DurenC · #018pts / game
Cade CunninghamG · #28assists
Ausar ThompsonG · #98rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
HOU
No games played yet.
DET
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

Tied 1-1 this season.

Team comparison

HOUDET
26-16Record32-10
116.5Points scored / game116.8
110.7Points allowed / game110.7
+4.9Adjusted margin / game+5.2
L1Current streakW4
5-5Last 10 games8-2
11-13 roadHome / road record18-4 home
52-30 (+4.5)Last season44-38 (+1.9)
YesPlayed yesterdayNo

Houston Rockets Injury report Rockets

No injuries reported.

Detroit Pistons Injury report Pistons

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.