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Heat vs Trail Blazers prediction NBA · Thursday, January 22

FinalModa Center · FanDuel SN Sun, NBA League Pass, KUNP 16, BlazerVision
52% win MIAwin POR 48%
FavoriteMIA
Projected margin0.5
Projected total233
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Portland Trail Blazers (22-22) host the Miami Heat (23-21) on Thursday, January 22 at 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center in NBA action. Final score: Heat 110 – Trail Blazers 127. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Heat a 52% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Trail Blazers are 12-10 at home and the Heat are 8-14 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 8-2 for the Trail Blazers and 4-6 for the Heat (current streaks: Trail Blazers W3, Heat W1).

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Trail Blazers 116 – 117 Heat, a margin of about 0.5 points in favor of the Heat and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.

  • The Trail Blazers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Trail Blazers
Team strength (adjusted point differential)POR -1.8 / MIA +1.0 per game
-2.8
Home-court advantageTrail Blazers at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Trail Blazers
-0.5

Scenarios

Trail Blazers win by 10+
20%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Heat win by 10+
22%

Stat comparison Current season

MIAPOR
117.6
Points scored / game
115.1
116.5
Points allowed / game
117.3
45.3 %
Field goal %
51.1 %
31.7 %
3-point %
38.9 %
37.8
3-pointers attempted / game
43.7
71.7 %
Free throw %
70.8 %
42.8
Rebounds / game
46.3
27.0
Assists / game
30.7
8.4
Steals / game
8.3
5.4
Blocks / game
2.7
14.2
Turnovers / game
13.3

Top performers

Heat
Bam AdebayoC · #1332pts / game
Pelle LarssonG · #96assists
Bam AdebayoC · #1310rebounds
Trail Blazers
Shaedon SharpeG · #1727pts / game
Jrue HolidayG · #57assists
Robert Williams IIIC · #3510rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
MIA
No games played yet.
POR
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

Tied 1-1 this season.

Team comparison

MIAPOR
23-21Record22-22
117.6Points scored / game115.1
116.5Points allowed / game117.3
+1.0Adjusted margin / game-1.8
W1Current streakW3
4-6Last 10 games8-2
8-14 roadHome / road record12-10 home
37-45 (+0.6)Last season36-46 (-3.0)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Miami Heat Injury report Heat

No injuries reported.

Portland Trail Blazers Injury report Trail Blazers

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.