Heat vs Warriors prediction NBA · Monday, January 19
At a glance
The Golden State Warriors (24-19) host the Miami Heat (22-20) on Monday, January 19 at 10:00 PM ET at Chase Center in NBA action. Final score: Heat 112 – Warriors 135. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Warriors a 62% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Warriors are 16-6 at home and the Heat are 7-13 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 7-3 for the Warriors and 5-5 for the Heat (current streaks: Warriors W3, Heat W1).
The analysis Model
Slight edge to the Warriors, but the Heat have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Warriors 117 – 114 Heat, a margin of about 3.7 points in favor of the Warriors and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.
- The Heat need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Warriors' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.7 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
MIAGS
Top performers
Heat
Norman PowellG · #2421pts / game
Jaime Jaquez Jr.F · #249assists
Bam AdebayoC · #1312reboundsWarriors
Brandin PodziemskiG · #224pts / game
Stephen CurryG · #3011assists
Quinten PostC · #419reboundsRecent form
MIAGS
GS
Team comparison
| MIA | GS | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-20 | Record | 24-19 |
| 117.5 | Points scored / game | 115.7 |
| 116.1 | Points allowed / game | 112.7 |
| +1.2 | Adjusted margin / game | +2.6 |
| W1 | Current streak | W3 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 games | 7-3 |
| 7-13 road | Home / road record | 16-6 home |
| 37-45 (+0.6) | Last season | 48-34 (+3.3) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Heat
Injury report Warriors
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.