Warriors vs Heat prediction NBA · Wednesday, November 19
At a glance
The Miami Heat (8-6) host the Golden State Warriors (9-7) on Wednesday, November 19 at 7:30 PM ET at Kaseya Center in NBA action. Final score: Warriors 96 – Heat 110. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Heat a 62% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Heat are 6-1 at home and the Warriors are 4-7 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 5-5 for the Heat and 5-5 for the Warriors (current streaks: Heat W1, Warriors L1).
The analysis Model
The Heat are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Heat 117 – 113 Warriors, a margin of about 3.8 points in favor of the Heat and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Warriors played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.
- The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Heat's offense (118.1 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Warriors' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.7 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
GSMIA
Top performers
Warriors
Brandin PodziemskiG · #220pts / game
Pat SpencerG · #6113assists
Trayce Jackson-DavisF · #3212reboundsHeat
Norman PowellG · #2425pts / game
Jaime Jaquez Jr.F · #247assists
Kel'el WareC · #916reboundsRecent form
GSMIA
GS
Team comparison
| GS | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 9-7 | Record | 8-6 |
| 114.8 | Points scored / game | 118.1 |
| 112.7 | Points allowed / game | 116.2 |
| +1.7 | Adjusted margin / game | +1.6 |
| L1 | Current streak | W1 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 games | 5-5 |
| 4-7 road | Home / road record | 6-1 home |
| 48-34 (+3.3) | Last season | 37-45 (+0.6) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Warriors
Injury report Heat
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.