Wizards vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Saturday, January 17
At a glance
The Denver Nuggets (28-13) host the Washington Wizards (10-30) on Saturday, January 17 at 9:00 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. Final score: Wizards 115 – Nuggets 121. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Nuggets a 93% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Nuggets are 11-6 at home and the Wizards are 4-17 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 6-4 for the Nuggets and 3-7 for the Wizards (current streaks: Nuggets W3, Wizards L5).
The analysis Model
On paper, the Nuggets dominate this matchup. The model projects Nuggets 127 – 109 Wizards, a margin of about 18.0 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 236 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Wizards played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.
- The overall strength gap (+4.3 vs -9.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Nuggets' offense (122.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Nuggets' defense allows clearly fewer points (117.2 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
WSHDEN
Top performers
Wizards
Kyshawn GeorgeF · #1829pts / gameKyshawn GeorgeF · #187assists
Justin ChampagnieF · #99reboundsNuggets
Jamal MurrayG · #2742pts / game
Aaron GordonF · #3211assistsAaron GordonF · #3210reboundsRecent form
WSHDEN
WSH
Team comparison
| WSH | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 10-30 | Record | 28-13 |
| 111.6 | Points scored / game | 122.2 |
| 123.2 | Points allowed / game | 117.2 |
| -9.8 | Adjusted margin / game | +4.3 |
| L5 | Current streak | W3 |
| 3-7 | Last 10 games | 6-4 |
| 4-17 road | Home / road record | 11-6 home |
| 18-64 (-12.4) | Last season | 50-32 (+3.9) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Wizards
Injury report Nuggets
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.