Thunder vs Heat prediction NBA · Saturday, January 17
At a glance
The Miami Heat (21-20) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (35-7) on Saturday, January 17 at 8:00 PM ET at Kaseya Center in NBA action. Final score: Thunder 120 – Heat 122. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 73% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Heat are 14-7 at home and the Thunder are 15-4 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 5-5 for the Heat and 8-2 for the Thunder (current streaks: Heat L1, Thunder W5).
The analysis Model
The Thunder start with a clear edge. The model projects Heat 112 – 119 Thunder, a margin of about 7.8 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.
- The overall strength gap (+1.2 vs +11.3 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Heat need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's offense (121.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (107.7 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
OKCMIA
Top performers
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #239pts / game
Jaylin WilliamsF · #64assists
Chet HolmgrenC · #711reboundsHeat
Bam AdebayoC · #1330pts / game
Kasparas JakucionisG · #257assistsBam AdebayoC · #1312reboundsRecent form
OKCMIA
MIA
Team comparison
| OKC | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 35-7 | Record | 21-20 |
| 121.0 | Points scored / game | 117.4 |
| 107.7 | Points allowed / game | 116.1 |
| +11.3 | Adjusted margin / game | +1.2 |
| W5 | Current streak | L1 |
| 8-2 | Last 10 games | 5-5 |
| 15-4 road | Home / road record | 14-7 home |
| 68-14 (+12.9) | Last season | 37-45 (+0.6) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Thunder
Injury report Heat
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.